Daily Forex Analysis and Prediction for June 22, 2009

LONDON (Dow Jones)–European stocks are expected to open just lower Monday, as bulls start the week on the back foot amid doubts about the strength of any potential global economic recovery.

“Anyone looking for question marks over the green shoots of recovery need only hunt as far as the overnight house price data released by Rightmove (in the U.K.) which showed a decline in asking prices for June following four successive months of increases,” said Matt Buckland, a dealer at CMC Markets, “and the cautious theme is being seen farther afield too with improving Japanese business sentiment failing to result in any significant shift in investor outlook.”

Buckland expected Europe’s major indexes to edge lower, with London’s FTSE 100 index set to open just 1 point lower at 4345. He also saw Frankfurt’s DAX index falling 3 points to 4836 and the CAC-40 index in Paris down 6 points to 3215.

The fundamentals are relatively thin on the ground Monday, noted Buckland, although German IFO data, at 0800 GMT, will doubtless be under a degree of scrutiny.

Still, the main focus this week will be the statement from the Federal Open Market Committee on Wednesday.

“The Fed needs to find a balance between not killing the recovery through rate hike hopes, while at the same time not over-committing on keeping rates low,” said Ashley Davies at UBS.

U.S. stocks ended mixed Friday as a cautious market gave up most of early gains chalked up by last week’s generally upbeat economic data.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 15.87 points, of 0.2%, to 8,539.73 at the close with the blue-chip index unable to maintain its momentum a day after snapping a three-day losing streak.

The tech-dominant Nasdaq gained 19.75 points, 1.1%, to 1,827.47, while the broad-market Standard & Poor’s 500 index advanced 2.86 points, 0.3%, to a close of 921.23.

Asian share markets were higher Monday but with the mood somewhat cautious after a mixed performance by Wall Street on Friday.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 closed up 0.4%, with South Korea’s Kospi Composite 1.1% higher. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index was last seen 2.3% higher.

“Risk aversion claimed victory last week, but a resounding victory it was definitely not. The market is awaiting further confirmation, or not, of the green shoot theory, but might have to wait beyond this week given the lack of key data releases,” said RBC Capital Markets.

The crude oil futures market has seen small gains Monday, but the tone has turned more bearish after prices settled below $70 a barrel for the first time since June 8 Friday in a selloff spurred by a steep drop in gasoline futures and weakness in the equities market.

At 0605 GMT, the July crude contract on Globex stood at $69.61 per barrel, up 6 cents, having settled Friday at $69.55 per barrel, down $1.82, on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

At 0605 GMT, spot gold stood at $933.60/oz, around $1 lower than the opening levels.

In the currency markets, the U.S. dollar recovered its footing overnight after coming under some modest selling pressure on Friday during a rather uneventful session, said Geoffrey Yu at UBS.

The euro traded from a high of $1.3963 to a low of $1.3886, while the dollar was little changed against the yen, having traded in the range Y95.79-Y96.35.

At 0610 GMT, the euro stood at $1.3894, while the dollar stood at Y96.03.

European government bond markets have opened largely flat Monday, ahead of the Fed’s statement on Wednesday. However, a backdrop to the FOMC statement this week will be the 2-year, 5-year and 7-year auction on Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday respectively, said Yu. The bid-to-cover ratio and the yield at which the market clears will be used to judge faith in the Fed’s policies.

At 0610 GMT, the September bund contract stood unchanged at 119.69.

-By Peter Nurse, Dow Jones Newswires

Berita diatas adalah yang menyebabkan Euro dan GBP melemah di siang hari ini. Sekarang menunggu berita German IFO di saat jam 3 sore nanti

Ada perkembangan berita baru yang mengakibatkan USD menguat tadi.
(diakibatkan dari situasi di negara Iran pula):

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aTPR2fcvjxtg

London, June 22. EUR/USD managed to claw its way back into the high-1.3880s into the German June IFO release but the data is close to expectations and this has initially prompted a bout of “buy the rumor, sell the fact” type profit-taking from players that bought close to the early European lows. Both Nerb and Abberger are on now the wires following the rise to 85.9. However, current conditions failed to match upbeat forecasts.

Should the Euro be underpinned by the improvement in the headline index then EUR/USD will need to push back into the 1.39s before a more significant bounce is eyed. On the topside, offers are still expected to intensify into the 1.39s, with the 10 & 21-DMA lines (close to 1.3950 & 1.4000 respectively) key to unlocking longer-term gains. Technicians will await any intraday close above both lines before targeting a retracement back towards the early June highs in the 1.43s. It is also worth noting option structures remain in play up at 1.4050, and beyond, which could stall any further appreciations

ADAMAJA Reply:
June 22nd, 2009 at 3:13 pm

MKASUDNYA EU NAIK OR TURUN DEH?? MAAF NEWBE

Hati-hati untuk Euro, karena baru saja ada perkembangan baru untuk Negara Italy yang ternyata beritanya jelek, hal ini bisa berefek ke Euro (karena Italy terletak di Uni Eropa):

ROME (Dow Jones)–Italian industrial orders fell sharply and worse-than-expected in April, as foreign and national demand dropped, statistics agency Istat said Monday.

Industrial orders fell an unadjusted 32.2% on the year in April, after falling 26% in March and 32.7% in February.

On the year, Istat said that foreign orders fell 36.4%, while national orders fell 30.1%.

On the month, industrial orders fell a seasonally-adjusted 3.7% compared with a 2.7% fall in March.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires predicted industrial orders would fall an annual 26.2% and a monthly 1.8%.

Industrial sales were down an unadjusted 22.2% on the year in April, as sales abroad slid 28.9%, while Italian sales fell 19.4%. Sales on the month were flat in April as national sales rose by 1.1%, while foreign industrial sales were down 2.6%.

Italy is in a deep recession and economists say it iss hard to determine when Europe’s fourth-largest economy will recover.

Last week, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, or OECD, said it now expects the country’s gross domestic product to contract 5.3% in 2009 after receeding 1% last year, marking the deepest recession since World War II.

Web site: http://www.istat.it

Dari berita yang saling tumpang tindih ini, Euro masih berpotensi Sideway. Kita tunggu updatenya bila ada perkembangan berita baru kembali yang bisa menggerakkan pasarnya.

Tetapi kalau kita lihat , berita German IFO efeknya mustinya lebih kuat, sehingga potensi untuk Buy EUR/USD masih lebih besar.

LONDON (Dow Jones)–Uncertainty over what the Federal Reserve will say about the future of U.S. monetary policy at its meeting has cut risk appetite and helped the dollar higher in most places in Europe Monday.

The major currency most under pressure has been the euro, but the pound has also suffered, hit by news that U.K. house prices have started falling again.

The market’s focus on the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting has intensified as expectations of what the next move will be on U.S. interest rates have swung from one extreme to the next.

Analysts blamed this uncertainty on the Fed’s unconventional policy which has left the markets unclear about how the Fed is managing key rates in the market during this recession.

As a result, noted the currency strategy team at Commerzbank, “it is obvious that no one will want to position themselves one way or another” and the dollar’s performance against the euro will remain uncertain until there are clear signals from the Fed.

See chart at

http://www.dowjoneswebservices.com/chart/view/2274

The euro itself was hit not only by the return of risk aversion but a report in the Wall Street Journal that a major budget shortfall could increase Germany’s debt by more than EUR100 billion next year.

However, the single currency did get a little lift from its lows from the latest Ifo survey from Germany, which showed the main business sentiment index rising to 85.9 this month from 84.2 in May. The market had only been looking for a rise to 85.3.

The other major mover was the pound.

An article in The Sunday Times suggesting that the Bank of England is already working on an exit strategy from negative interest rates, which could mean rates being hiked before the end of 2009 and rising faster than expected in 2010, failed to give the currency much support.

Instead, the market focus was on a downturn in U.K. house prices, which pushed the pound lower. Online estate agent Rightmove said prices fell 0.4% on the month in June, reversing gains seen last month.

By 0930 GMT, the dollar had fallen to Y96.01 from Y96.23 late Friday in New York, according to EBS.

The euro was down at $1.3839 from $1.3948 and at Y132.93 from Y134.22.

The dollar was up at CHF1.0885 from CHF1.0803, while the pound tumbled to $1.6450 from $1.6496.

In Eastern Europe, most currencies were a little stronger. The euro is down at HUF278.37 from HUF279.33 and at PLN4.5079 from PLN4.5331. The single currency is also lower at CZK25.996 from CZK26.208.

[Dow Jones] The main Europe stock bourses are now all over 1% lower on the day and the risk currencies are waking up to the move and fall to the day’s lows. EUR/USD hits 1.3835 from the day’s high of 1.3958, NZD and CAD are one cent off their day’s highs, while AUD is down some 3/4 of a cent. EUR/JPY hits the day’s low of 132.82, as the JPY gains on safe haven flows. (GST)